New polling that was released earlier this week in Maine claims a 21-point lead for supporters of marriage equality, with 7 percent undecided. While I do believe we have an advantage, I don’t believe it is this strong, despite similarities to June polling.
Critical Insights hasn’t publicly released the methodology behind this polling, or the full crosstabs showing positions based on demographics. Without this information it’s hard to truly tell how accurate the polling is, and we’ve learned from all of the previous marriage races that polling is often way off base. Factors like whether they reach people with just landlines, or if respondents are talking to someone on the phone versus engaging with a computer have an impact on results. And many voters may not like to admit to a person that they oppose marriage equality.
Regardless of the accuracy of this polling, the reality of the campaign against marriage equality is that it’s about to get a lot more aggressive. According to the Yes on One campaign (the good guys), the opposition is expected to begin airing ads next week in Maine.
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