The Supreme Court will rule for nationwide marriage equality by a 6-3 vote. That’s my prediction. This is premature, more than a week before the Justices hear arguments, but here are my reasons — good, bad, and ugly. If it does happen, this will be why.
These are more or less squarely legal reasons, the kind you could tell a judge in court without feeling stupid. If the Supreme Court does rule for marriage equality, these reasons will appear in the opinion.
1. What the Law Says
The legal case for marriage equality has been getting steadily stronger. Since 1996, the Supreme Court has twice struck down anti-gay discrimination. In these cases, the Court has said that moral disapproval of homosexuality is not a legitimate purpose for law, and it has looked closely at anti-gay laws to sniff out this illegitimate “animus.”