Is gay marriage winning? It would seem so.
As this graph from Dylan Matthews shows, support in the Senate has risen at a genuinely exponential pace, rocketing from 11 supportive senators in 2011 to 50 in 2013. The flip in the country has been almost as impressive, though not quite as swift. According to the Washington Post/ABC News poll, support for gay marriage has gone from about 40 percent of the population in 2004 to almost 60 percent today.
Amidst all this, it’s become popular to say that gay marriage has actually “won.” At Bloomberg View, Josh Barro brushes this away as glib triumphalism. “It doesn’t feel that way to gay men and lesbians,” he writes. “Unless the Supreme Court rules in our favor this summer, we will likely have to spend more than 20 years fighting to repeal provisions in 30 state constitutions before national marriage equality is achieved. Many of us will be dead, or at least old and unmarriageable, before then.”
Recall that even if the Supreme Court invalidates California’s Prop 8, only about 28 percent of the country will live in states that recognize same-sex marriages. If Prop 8 stands, then only 16 percent of the country will live in such states.
Even though the fight will go on for some time, you can just feel the shift in momentum. It’s an exciting time to be alive.