USA: More Speculation and Analysis of Pending US Supreme Court Rulings on Marriage Equality

Written by scott on June 24th, 2013

US Supreme CourtWith the US Supreme Court declining to release the marriage equality rulings this morning, all eyes turn to Tuesday. Meanwhile, the speculation (and the frustration) continues to mount.

John Aravosis at AmericaBlog expresses the latter:

Unlike the religious right and their Republican overlords (or vice versa), I can handle the notion of the court deciding such things. It’s the way it works in our democracy – courts decide constitutional matters. What I can’t handle is the manner in which the cases are announced, almost as if the court is playing a game with us. Teasing us. Taunting us. Edging us along like some cat toying with its prey, undecided if it’s going to kill it, free it, or just get bored all together and walk away, looking for the next potential ball of yarn. There has got to be a better way.

Why not schedule the release dates for each of the rulings? The rest of us have to work on deadlines – why not the Court?

SDGLN reports on how much has changed in California since Prop 8 was passed in 2008:

Proponents now say they have little doubt that even with the worst outcome from the court — upholding the ban — California voters would legalize gay marriage if the measure made it on the ballot again. That level of confidence is evidence of how the cultural and political landscape has shifted here, but also of the lessons learned from the unexpected defeat of five years ago. Even opponents of same-sex marriage, looking at many of the same polls, say they would have a far more difficult battle if California voters were given another chance to vote on the issue.

Over at Towleroad.com, Ari Ezra Waldman looks at today’s ruling on affirmative action for clues to how the court will rule on the marriage equality cases:

Conservatives have little sympathy for this law partly because they see it as a gross violation of local and state rights in the name of punishing today’s citizens for the sins of their fathers. And yet a history of discrimination is a key factor in determining if any group — including the LGBT community — will get heightened scrutiny applied to instances of official discrimination. In Fisher, the Court is hinting that it is tossing aside the past and remaining blind to the very real lingering effects of decades of institutional discrimination. We should be concerned that this willful blindness will be one weapon the Court’s conservatives use to deny us heightened scrutiny for anti-gay discrimination.

Advocates rallying outside the Court are optimistic:

Same-sex marriage supporters who gathered outside the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday said they remain hopeful the justices will strike down California’s Proposition 8 and the Defense of Marriage Act. “We’re hopeful and optimistic that even out of a conservative court is going to come a strong opinion for equality,” Jonathan Lewis of Brookline, Mass., told the Washington Blade as he stood outside the court with his husband of nearly six years, Jonathan Adlar, and their 10-week-old son.

Think Progress looks at the possibilities – including this one:

A Stealth Attack: Several prominent conservatives are pushing a dangerous legal theory that would strike down DOMA on states’ rights grounds, and potentially endanger Social Security, veterans benefits and progressive taxation in the process.

Again tomorrow morning we wait for the rulings.

 

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