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US: States With Gay Marriage Bans Have Higher Divorce Rates

Wednesday, January 13th, 2010

Over the past decade or so, divorce has gradually become more uncommon in the United States. Since 2003, however, the decline in divorce rates has been largely confined to states which have not passed a state constitutional ban on gay marriage. These states saw their divorce rates decrease by an average of 8 percent between 2003 and 2008. States which had passed a same-sex marriage ban as of January 1, 2008, however, saw their divorce rates rise by about 1 percent over the same period.

The table below details the divorce rates for the 43 states that reported their divorce statistics to the CDC in both 2003 and 2008. It is calculated by taking the total number of divorces in the state that year, and dividing it by the number of married persons, as reported by the Census Bureau.

The result is then multiplied by two, since each divorce involves two people. This is different than how the divorce rate is sometimes calculated, which may be as a share of the overall population rather than the number of married persons; I prefer my approach because it will not penalize a state for having a lot of marriages (and therefore more opportunities for divorce).

Full Story from FiveThirtyEight.com: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/divorce-rates-appear-higher-in-states.html

Click here for gay marriage resources.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

Posted in divorce rates, Gay Marriage, gay marriage bans, marriage equality, nate silver, same sex marriage, states | No Responses »

538's Nate Silver Gives Advantage to Gay Marriage Supporters in Maine

Tuesday, November 3rd, 2009

Question 1, Maine’s gay marriage referendum, remains a tight contest but gay marriage advocates are heading into the final lap with the advantage, one analyst concludes.

Gay marriage has yet to win a popular vote but proponents hope Mainers will be the first to buck the trend. At least one analysis favors a gay marriage win.

Question 1 asks Mainers to affirm – or reject – a gay marriage law approved by lawmakers in the spring. If approved, the law would not go into effect; gay men and lesbians would not be allowed to marry, but gay marriage would not be banned outright. That is, the Legislature would be free to enact a new law during its ordinary session. Which is different from a voter-approved constitutional gay marriage ban – such as California’s Proposition 8 – that leaves lawmakers and courts impotent on the issue. A ban severely hamstrings gay marriage advocates options.

Full Story from On Top Magazine: http://www.ontopmag.com/article.aspx?id=4804&MediaType=1&Category=26

Planning to marry your partner? Click here for gay marriage resources in Maine.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

Posted in fivethirtyeight.com, Gay Marriage, maine, me, nate silver, question 1 | No Responses »

Five Thirty Eight's Nate Silver Debunks Anti Gay Marriage Arguments in Maine

Friday, October 23rd, 2009

Yesterday, I was sent an e-mail from the Stand for Marriage Maine campaign, which I signed up for under a secondary e-mail account. The message suggests talking points that opponents of gay marriage might use when calling into local radio stations.

…

So, paraphrasing somewhat, the arguments that the Yes on 1 campaign seems to be making are as follows:

1. The new law won’t make gay marriage equal to straight marriage. Instead, it will create a new kind of marriage in which gay people and straight people are equal.
2. Although we may not have proven any connection between gay marriage and public education, our opponents haven’t disproven the connection, and it’s their fault that the subject came up.
3. If gay marriage is upheld, then marriage will exist solely to make people happy.

Full Story from FiveThirtyEight.com: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/10/arguments-against-gay-marriage.html

Planning to marry your partner? Click here for gay marriage resources in Maine.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

Posted in five thirty eight, Gay Marriage, maine, me, nate silver | No Responses »

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com Analyzes Maine Gay Marriage Polls

Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

Here are the results of the four recent — and somewhat contradictory — polls on Maine’s Question 1, which seeks to overturn the state legislature’s decision to provide for same-sex marriage in the state.

Pick your poison. The Democracy Corps poll is of registered voters (bad); the other three are of likely voters (good, usually). The PPP poll has the largest sample (good), and the Pan Atlantic Poll has the smallest sample (bad). The PPP poll is the most recent (good) — although the poll showing the worst result for gay marriage, from Research 2000, is the least recent. Pan Atlantic is a Maine-based pollster (good); the other three are national pollsters (bad). The PPP poll is an automated poll — which Tom Jensen thinks might be preferable in this instance — whereas the other three use traditional telephone methods.

Full Story from FiveThirtyEight.com: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/10/turnout-is-maine-issue.html

Planning to marry your partner? Click here for gay marriage resources in Maine.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

Posted in Gay Marriage, maine, nate silver, polls, question 1 | No Responses »

Poll Analyst Nate Silver Thinks Gay Marriage Ban Likely to Fail in Maine

Monday, October 5th, 2009

Back in April, I conducted an analysis of the prospects of a gay marriage ban becoming law in each of the 50 states. The analysis found that support for gay marriage bans was strongly tied to two factors: the degree of religiosity in a state, as measured by 2008 Gallup tracking surveys, and the year that the initiative was up for vote — marriage bans have lost support at a rate of about 2 percent per year, ceteris paribus. That analysis concluded that a Maine is one of 11 states that would probably vote to reject a ban on gay marriage if a referendum were held this year.

Mainers, in fact, will soon have a chance to test this proposition. In November, they will go to the polls to vote on Question 1; a yes vote would overturn a law passed earlier this year by the state’s legislature that permits gays and lesbians to get married in the state.

I decided to re-visit my model, which consists of a relatively simple data set of all previous anti-gay marriage initiatives. 31 of 32 such initiatives have passed, the sole exception being Arizona Proposition 107, which failed in 2006, although Arizona’s voters decided two years later to approve a similar measure that limited its scope to marriage rather than civil unions. I’ve expanded the model to include a new variable, which — pursuant to the Arizona case — is whether the initiative sought to ban civil unions in addition to marriage. (Although I’d given this a cursory look before, I evidently wasn’t careful enough, because it turns out to be highly statistically significant).

Full Story from FiveThirtyEight.com: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/10/analysis-gay-marriage-ban-is-underdog.html

Planning to marry your partner? Click here for gay marriage resources in Maine.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

Posted in 538, analyst, ban, fivethirtyeight, Gay Marriage, likely fail, nate silver, question 1 | No Responses »