Gay Marriage Watch

The 2009 ballot question on gay marriage in Maine was the most expensive initiative campaign in Maine history, and the third most expensive statewide political campaign in the state’s history. More than $7 million was spent on both sides. Only the U.S. Senate races of 2002 and 2008 were more costly.

This report will examine where the money got spent, on both the “Yes” (anti-equality) and “No” (pro-equality) sides. There were some significant differences in how the funds were allocated among different sources. Brief synopses will be provided on the major vendors on both sides. Finally, some suggestions for future equality campaigns will be offered.

Step One: Get the Issue On the Ballot

Before there could even be a campaign, the “People’s Veto” needed to get the requisite number of signatures to qualify it for the state ballot. In Maine, that requires collecting roughly 55,000 signatures. Stand for Marriage Maine (the Yes on 1 campaign) spent more than $300,000 to gather the signatures. A Michigan-based firm, National Petition Management, was contracted to perform this task. They succeeded. Still, this meant that Yes on 1 needed to raise $300,000 before there could even be a campaign. In my analysis I consider this to be pre-campaign expenditures and do not include it in my ratio calculations.

Full Story from the Nolan Chart: http://www.nolanchart.com/article7146.html

Click here for gay marriage resources in Maine.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

Should the November 2009 result in Maine – a 53/47 victory by the forces seeking to overturn marriage equality – have come as a surprise? After all, No on 1 raised much more money than Yes on 1 did. They out- organized their opponents. They ran a positive, upbeat campaign. And still the result, just like California last year: a loss.

This report will examine the reasons behind the Maine loss. Then it will undertake demographic analysis of the results from Maine, California (Proposition and Washington State (Referendum 71) to assess whether there were consistent demographic factors in play. Next, based on the results of the demographic analysis, a simple model will be suggested to estimate probability on a state-by-state basis of marriage equality being adopted at the ballot box. Finally, a going-forward strategy for marriage equality advocates will be proposed.

Full Story from Virtual Galt: http://www.virtualgalt.com/mainpages/marriage%20equality%20lessons%20learned.pdf

Click here for gay marriage resources.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

The most effective man fighting to deny the right of gay marriage in America is Frank Schubert of Sacramento. Schubert ran the successful Yes on Proposition 8 campaign last year, the initiative banning gay marriage in California. This week, when Maine voted to repeal a new law allowing gay marriage, Schubert was again the pivotal organizer.

If conventional wisdom on gay marriage inevitability were a balloon, Schubert would be the needle.

His win in California galvanized Yes on Prop. 8 believers from the right and left – from black to white to Latino and Asian. His win in Maine halted a tide of momentum for gay marriage in several states.

Full Story from the Sacramento Bee: http://www.sacbee.com/breton/story/2313315.html

Planning to marry your partner? Click here for gay marriage resources.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

The stars seemed aligned for supporters of gay marriage. They had Maine’s governor, legislative leaders and major newspapers on their side, plus a huge edge in campaign funding. So losing a landmark referendum was a devastating blow, for activists in Maine and nationwide.

In an election that had been billed for weeks as too close to call, Maine’s often unpredictable voters repealed a state law Tuesday that would have allowed same-sex couples to wed. Gay marriage has now lost in all 31 states in which it has been put to a popular vote — a trend that the gay-rights movement had believed it could end in Maine.

“Today’s heartbreaking defeat unfortunately shows that lies and fear can still win at the ballot box,” said Rea Carey, executive director of the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force.

Full Story from AP: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jv2czUG72xt9zK5erT-vbOJ2X9UwD9BOONVG0

Planning to marry your partner? Click here for gay marriage resources.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

Maine — Question 1. Maine votes Yes on Question 1 — which means no on gay marriage — by a margin of about 52-48. Turnout was extremely high and should eventually surpass 500,000 voters, about where it was during the 2006 midterms. This fact was initially thought to favor the pro-gay marriage side — but, obviously, it didn’t. The results showed a very strong urban-rural divide, with the initiative being rejected by a margin of about 2:1 in Portland but racking up big margins in smaller towns and rural areas, especially in the north of the state.

We had given Question 1 about a 70 percent chance of being defeated based on a combination of an analysis of the polling and a statistical model. I don’t know how much time I’m supposed to spend defending being on the wrong side of a 70:30 bet — we build in a hedge for a reason — but here comes a little self-reflection. As for the polling, I think we have to seriously consider whether there is some sort of a Bradley Effect in the polling on gay rights issues, although one of the pollsters (PPP, which had a very bad night in NY-23) got it exactly right.

As for the model, I think I’ll need to look whether the urban-rural divide is a significant factor in a state in addition to its religiosity: Maine is secular, but rural. At the end of the day, it may have been too much to ask of a state to vote to approve gay marriage in an election where gay marriage itself was the headline issue on the ballot. Although the enthusiasm gap is very probably narrowing, feelings about gay marriage have traditionally been much stronger on the right than the left, and that’s what gets people up off the couch in off-year elections.

Full Story from Five Thirty Eight: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/what-happened-and-why.html

Planning to marry your partner? Click here for gay marriage resources.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

The Executive Director of Organizing for America sent an email to Mainers telling them to vote. Someone I know just got it:

Tomorrow is Election Day once again in Maine. It’s as important as ever for you to get out to vote. And just like you did last year, bring friends, family, and co-workers with you when you go to the polls.

Funny thing (or not), OFA forgot to tell Mainers what issues are on the ballot and how to vote on those issues. For example, there’s no mention of Question 1, the measure to repeal Maine’s marriage equality law – i.e., repeal gay marriage – in the email (really big surprise, huh?).

Full Story from AmericaBlog: http://gay.americablog.com/2009/11/ofa-tells-mainers-to-get-out-and-vote.html

Planning to marry your partner? Click here for gay marriage resources.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

Question 1, Maine’s gay marriage referendum, remains a tight contest but gay marriage advocates are heading into the final lap with the advantage, one analyst concludes.

Gay marriage has yet to win a popular vote but proponents hope Mainers will be the first to buck the trend. At least one analysis favors a gay marriage win.

Question 1 asks Mainers to affirm – or reject – a gay marriage law approved by lawmakers in the spring. If approved, the law would not go into effect; gay men and lesbians would not be allowed to marry, but gay marriage would not be banned outright. That is, the Legislature would be free to enact a new law during its ordinary session. Which is different from a voter-approved constitutional gay marriage ban – such as California’s Proposition 8 – that leaves lawmakers and courts impotent on the issue. A ban severely hamstrings gay marriage advocates options.

Full Story from On Top Magazine: http://www.ontopmag.com/article.aspx?id=4804&MediaType=1&Category=26

Planning to marry your partner? Click here for gay marriage resources in Maine.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

Protect Maine Equality is requesting donations in order to counter a last-minute attack and appeal for money from the “Yes on 1″ people, who sent out an email blast asking fro money in order to buy air time for a new attack ad.

Writes Stand for Marriage Maine (the bad guys) in an email:

“Dear Question 1 Supporter, We are so grateful for all your support, but I need to ask you one last time to please step up with a financial contribution so we can educate voters about a fast-breaking development that could be important to voters as they head to the polls on Tuesday.”

Full Story from Towleroad.com: http://www.towleroad.com/2009/11/protect-maine-equality-is-requesting-donations-in-order-to-counter-a-last-minute-attack-and-appeal-for-money-from-the-yes-on.html

Planning to marry your partner? Click here for gay marriage resources in Maine.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

Gay Marriage Watch Events List:

We now publish updates daily, and a weekly recap of upcoming gay marriage events. For the posted stories during the week and our occasional “woody award” for gay marriage homophobia, just scroll down the blog or check the archives on the right.

To subscribe to this blog, or if you have any thoughts about how we can make this feature better or easier to use or any updates on the issues covered here, let me know at info@purpleunions.com.

You can also now find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF).

We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc

Enjoy the rest of the Watch!

–Scott

Upcoming Gay Marriage Events (in Country, State, City Order)

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>>GAY MARRIAGE EVENTS IN AUSTRALIA

Australia, SA, Adelaide: 11/28: Kickoff event/rally for a “Year of Action for Same Sex Marriage.” http://tinyurl.com/yfnto8w

Australia, QLD, Brisbane: 11/28: Kickoff event/rally for a “Year of Action for Same Sex Marriage.” http://tinyurl.com/yfnto8w

Australia, QLD, Canberra: 11/28: Kickoff event/rally for a “Year of Action for Same Sex Marriage.” http://tinyurl.com/yfnto8w

Australia, NSW, Lismore: 11/28: Kickoff event/rally for a “Year of Action for Same Sex Marriage.” http://tinyurl.com/yfnto8w

Australia, VIC, Melbourne: 11/28: Kickoff event/rally for a “Year of Action for Same Sex Marriage.” http://tinyurl.com/yfnto8w

Australia, WA, Perth: 11/28: Kickoff event/rally for a “Year of Action for Same Sex Marriage.” http://tinyurl.com/yfnto8w

Australia, NSW, Sydney: 11/28: Kickoff event/rally for a “Year of Action for Same Sex Marriage.” http://tinyurl.com/yfnto8w

Australia, NSW, Sydney: 3/3: NMG’s Dinner at the Zoo, to raise money for Australian Marriage Equality (AME). http://tinyurl.com/yjcc8ks

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>>GAY MARRIAGE EVENTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

UK, England, Brighton: 11/15: Gay wedding show. http://tinyurl.com/yls8g6w

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>>GAY MARRIAGE EVENTS IN ARIZONA

USA, AZ, Tucson: 11/20: 1st annual Wingspan Classic Golf Tournament benefit. 12:30 PM. http://tinyurl.com/ykuh8ox

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>>GAY MARRIAGE EVENTS IN CALIFORNIA

CA, Belmont: 11/2: Keeping the Faith Candlelight Rally, Congregational Church, 7 PM. http://tinyurl.com/y8t3zbu

CA, Berkeley: 11/1: No on 1 Phonebank, T’s House, 2-5 PM, http://tinyurl.com/yhloy4w

CA, Carlsbad: 11/1: Keeping the Faith Candlelight Rally, Pilgrim United Church of Christ, 6:30 PM. http://tinyurl.com/y8t3zbu

CA, Claremont: 11/2: Keeping the Faith Candlelight Rally, Memorial Park, 6:30 PM. http://tinyurl.com/y8t3zbu

CA, Concord: 11/1: No on 1 Phonebank, Rainbow Comm Ctr, 2-5 PM, http://tinyurl.com/yjk7kmb

CA, Crestline: 11/2: No on 1 Phonebank, 3 PM, http://tinyurl.com/ylh4rjb

CA, Glendale: 11/1: No on 1 Phonebank, 10 AM-1 PM. http://tinyurl.com/yfu8sf3

CA, Los Angeles: Every Monday: LA Equal Roots Meeting. http://tinyurl.com/ntkal4

CA, Los Angeles: Every Tuesday: Love Honor Cherish Meeting. 7:30 PM. http://tinyurl.com/r2kruq

CA, Los Angeles: 11/1: No on 1 Phonebank, Private Home, 9:30-12:30 PM. http://tinyurl.com/yko35ye

CA, Los Angeles: 11/2: Keeping the Faith Candlelight Rally, Immanuel Presbyterian Church, 7 PM. http://tinyurl.com/y8t3zbu

CA, Los Angeles: 11/4: Marriage Equality Day – Mourning the loss of Rights stripped away by Prop 8, 7-10 PM. http://tinyurl.com/ygz2gpm

CA, Los Angeles: 11/5: Toast to Equality EQCA benefit, 6-9:30 PM. http://tinyurl.com/yzfvkrk

CA, Los Angeles: 11/6: 13 Love Stories Opening Night w/ Reverend Eric of SCLC, 7-9 PM. http://tinyurl.com/yzm8l3r

CA, Los Angeles: 11/7-11/20: “Lavender Los Angeles: The Making of our pre-Stonewall LGBT Movement”. http://tinyurl.com/yhc5e8b

CA, Los Angeles: 11/12: Tabling at Art Walk with Equality Network, 7-9:30 PM. http://tinyurl.com/yf3dyob

CA, Modesto: 11/2: Keeping the Faith Candlelight Rally, Universal Life Church, 7 PM. http://tinyurl.com/y8t3zbu

CA, Mountainview: 11/2: Phonebanking for Maine. 2-7 PM. http://tinyurl.com/m2ccut

CA, Oakland: 11/2: Keeping the Faith Candlelight Rally, Lakeshore Baptist Church, 7 PM. http://tinyurl.com/y8t3zbu

CA, Palm Springs: 11/7-11/8: Palm Springs Pride http://tinyurl.com/yhsfscv

CA, Riverside: 11/2: Keeping the Faith Candlelight Rally, St. George’s Episcopal Church, 7 PM. http://tinyurl.com/y8t3zbu

CA, Sacramento: 11/1: No on 1 Phonebank, Petra’s House, 12 PM. http://tinyurl.com/ya5vllb

CA, Sacramento: 11/4: A Day of Remembrance, Tears and Action: rally at the State Capitol. 5-7 PM. http://tinyurl.com/akwh6f

CA, Sacramento: 11/6: Honoring John Chiang, John A. Perez, and Kathy Kneer for their fight for LGBT rights, 6-8 PM. http://tinyurl.com/yhv3fv2

CA, Sacramento: 11/7: Camp Courage Sacramento 2-day training program on community organizing. http://tinyurl.com/yj8azmm

CA, San Diego: 11/3: Keeping the Faith Candlelight Rally, 1st Unitarian Church, 12 PM. http://tinyurl.com/y8t3zbu

CA, San Diego: 11/5: 2nd Annual “I DO” Party, 25% to EQCA, $10, 9 PM. http://tinyurl.com/ykca4to

CA, San Diego: 11/14: 2009 San Diego Equality Awards. http://tinyurl.com/yk595tj

CA, San Francisco: 11/1: No on 1 Phonebank, EQCA HQ, 11 AM, http://tinyurl.com/yharluq

CA, San Francisco: 11/2: No on 1 Phonebank, EQCA HQ, 2:30-5:30 AM, http://tinyurl.com/yeuwh24

CA, San Francisco: 11/3: No on 1 Phonebank, ACLU HQ, 7:00-8:00 PM, http://tinyurl.com/yeuwh24

CA, San Francisco: 11/3: Election Night party, Martuni’s. 8:00 PM, http://tinyurl.com/yeuwh24

CA, San Francisco: 11/2: Keeping the Faith Candlelight Rally, St. Mark’s Lutheran Church, 7 PM. http://tinyurl.com/y8t3zbu

CA, San Francisco: 11/4: Full Federal Equality Now! Rally and Action for LGBT Rights, Harvey Milk Plaza, 6-9 PM. http://tinyurl.com/yl38wap

CA, San Jose: 11/1: No on 1 Phonebank, EQCA Office, 1-5 PM, http://tinyurl.com/ylnk75n

CA, San Jose: 11/2: Keeping the Faith Candlelight Rally, First Christian Church, 6-7 PM. http://tinyurl.com/yknva69

CA, San Luis Obispo: 11/2: Keeping the Faith Candlelight Rally, SLO Mission Plaza Amphitheater, 6 PM. http://tinyurl.com/y8t3zbu

CA, Santa Clara: 11/2: Interfaith Candlelight Rally to Support Marriage Equality, First Christian Church, 6-7 PM. http://tinyurl.com/yjhsg52

CA, Santa Monica: 11/6: Share the Hope, Equality 2010, Sanctuary Church, 6 PM. http://tinyurl.com/y8t3zbu

CA, Sherman Oaks: 10/31: No on 1 Phonebank, Location TBA, 11 AM-2 PM. http://tinyurl.com/yfjkh2q

CA, Thousand Oaks: 11/2: Keeping the Faith Candlelight Rally, Hillcrest Dr/Lynn Rd, 6:30 PM. http://tinyurl.com/y8t3zbu

CA, Vallejo: 11/2: Keeping the Faith Candlelight Rally, 1st Christian Church, 7 PM. http://tinyurl.com/y8t3zbu

CA, West Hollywood: Every Wednesday: Equality Network meeting, at Fubar. 7-9PM. http://tinyurl.com/nlt3la

CA, West Hollywood: 11/7: An Action / Rally to officially kick-off a new campaign to enact marriage equality in California, thereby overturning Prop 8. 5-8 PM. http://tinyurl.com/ykwt3lq

CA, West Hollywood: 11/12: Launch of The Love Unites Shepard Fairey Equality Project benefiting marriage equality. $30-125. 8-11 PM. http://tinyurl.com/ykwt3lq

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>>GAY MARRIAGE EVENTS IN MAINE

ME: Volunteer with No on 1. http://tinyurl.com/yzk4ybd

ME, Augusta: 11/1: Interfaith Candlelight Vigil, 1st Universalist Church, 4-4:30 PM. http://tinyurl.com/yhp3f34

ME, Auburn: 11/1: Interfaith Candlelight Vigil, UU Church, 5-5:30 PM. http://tinyurl.com/ylc874f

ME, Bangor: 11/1: Interfaith Candlelight Vigil, St. Patricks., 5-5:30 PM. http://tinyurl.com/yzhglah

ME, Brunswick: 11/1: Interfaith Candlelight Vigil, Brunswick Mall, 5:30-6 PM. http://tinyurl.com/ygm633h

ME, Kennebunk: 11/1: Interfaith Candlelight Vigil, First Parish UU Church, 5-6 PM. http://tinyurl.com/yh4edpq

ME, Portland: 11/1: Interfaith Candlelight Vigil, Williston-West Church, 5-6 PM. http://tinyurl.com/ygm633h

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>>GAY MARRIAGE EVENTS IN OREGON

OR, Bend: 11/3: Winning the Freedom to Marry with Evan Wolfson, Old Stone Church, 7 PM. http://tinyurl.com/yfkmkz4

OR, Eugene: 11/4: Winning the Freedom to Marry with Evan Wolfson, Old Stone Church, 6 PM. http://tinyurl.com/yfkmkz4

OR, Portland: Every Tuesday: Portland Equal Rights Coalition Meeting, Check Site for Location. http://tinyurl.com/yfqd2pz

OR, Portland: 11/2: Winning the Freedom to Marry with Evan Wolfson, Old Stone Church. SEIU Local 49, 6 PM. http://tinyurl.com/yfkmkz4

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>>GAY MARRIAGE EVENTS IN TEXAS

TX, Dallas: 2/3-2/7: The 22nd National Conference on LGBT Equality: Creating Change: The 22nd National Conference on LGBT Equality: Creating Change will be held at the Sheraton Dallas Hotel in beautiful downtown Dallas, Texas, Feb. 3 – 7, 2010. http://tinyurl.com/ykppv5p

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fini

This is gonna be fun. First, everybody get naked.

Wow, that was fast. Now, to play the game all you have to do is guess which of these comments about Maine’s upcoming ballot Question 1 are real—i.e. from letters and opinion columns published in the Portland Press Herald, Bangor Daily News or Portland Daily Sun—and which are ones I just made up to sound crazy. This is tougher than it looks. Good luck!

1) Gay rights advocates sneer at the common-sense objection that homosexual relations cannot be considered natural or normal. One need merely look at human anatomy and consider the consequences if all sex were homosexual sex to grasp this obvious and intuitive fact.

Full Story from Daily Kos: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/10/30/798655/-Cheers-and-Jeers:-Candy-Corn-FRIDAY!

Planning to marry your partner? Click here for gay marriage resources in Maine.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.