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NY Times: Few States Would Approve Marriage Equality Ban Today

Wednesday, July 6th, 2011

Twenty-nine states have constitutional amendments defining marriage as a heterosexual union, but voters in as few as two would absolutely approve one today, according to new analysis published in The New York Times on Tuesday.

Statistician Nate Silver’s predictions on the percentage of the vote such a ballot initiative would receive is based on 34 nationwide ballot initiatives.

Silver works the numbers from several angles; looking at amendments that ban all forms of recognition and those that only seek to ban gay marriage, and applying different rates of increasing approval for gay and lesbian unions.

Full Story from On Top Magazine

Click here for gay marriage resources.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

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FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Updates Marriage Equality Predictions

Thursday, June 30th, 2011

Nate Silver on Gay MarriageLast week’s passage of a bill to make New York’s marriage law gender-neutral may accelerate efforts to put the issue before voters in other states.

A measure to ban same-sex marriage in Minnesota’s Constitution is already scheduled to be on the ballot in 2012, and one could follow in North Carolina. But with relatively few states now holding neutral positions on same-sex marriage, there may be efforts to repeal constitutional bans that already exist, such as in California and Oregon.

It is high time, therefore, to revisit the model that I originally built in 2009, which aims to predict the percentage of the vote that gay marriage-related ballot initiatives will receive.

Full Story from The New York Times

Click here for gay marriage resources.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

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Nate Silver: Marriage Equality Opponents Now the Minority

Wednesday, April 20th, 2011

Nate Silver on Gay MarriageA poll from CNN this week is the latest to show a majority of Americans in favor of same-sex marriage, with 51 percent saying that marriages between gay and lesbian couples “should be recognized by the law as valid” and 47 percent opposed.

This is the fourth credible poll in the past eight months to show an outright majority of Americans in favor of gay marriage. That represents quite a lot of progress for supporters of same-sex marriage. Prior to last year, there had been just one survey — a Washington Post poll conducted in April 2009 — to show support for gay marriage as the plurality position, and none had shown it with a majority.

As we noted last August, support for gay marriage seems to have been increasing at an accelerated pace over the past couple of years. Below is an update to the graph from last year’s article, which charts the trend from all available public polls on same-sex marriage going back to 1988.

Full Story from the New York Times

Click here for gay marriage resources.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

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Nate Silver: By 2013, It Will Likely Be Too Late for Iowa Marriage Equality Repeal

Thursday, February 3rd, 2011

Iowa Gay Marriage BanOn the day in 2009 that the Iowa Supreme Court unanimously ruled that same-sex marriage was protected under the state constitution, a rising young pollster named Nate Silver peered into the future.

Silver, who nailed 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 presidential election, plugged the numbers into a model that considers political and demographic variables. Then he predicted what would happen if Iowans were allowed to vote on same-sex marriage right then. He said a ban would pass with 56 percent of the vote, which isn’t far from the Supreme Court no-retention tally in November – not to mention the percentage of Iowans who say they’d vote for a ban right now if they could.

Except they can’t. Not until the Senate agrees with the House and lets it happen. And even then, the earliest chance to go to the polls would be 2013. By then, Silver wrote, it likely would be too late. A proposed marriage ban would fail.

Full Story from the Des Mines Register

Click here for gay marriage resources in Iowa.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

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Nate Silver on Gay Marriage Polling

Thursday, August 12th, 2010

Gay Marriage Polls

In April, 2009, when we last took a survey of gay marriage polls, we found that support for it had converged somewhere into the area of 41 or 42 percent of the country. Now, it appears to have risen by several points, and as I reported yesterday, it has become increasingly unclear whether opposition to gay marriage still outweighs support for it.

Here is a version of the graph we produced in 2009, but updated to include the dozen or so polls that have been conducted on it since that time, as listed by pollingreport.com. I have also included opinions on gay marriage from the General Social Survey, which asked about gay marriage as long ago as 1988.

The LOESS regression line now shows 50 percent opposed to gay marriage and 49 percent in support — basically too close to call.

Full Story from 538

Click here for gay marriage resources.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

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Nate Silver: 250 Million Now Live in Places With Marriage Equality

Friday, July 16th, 2010

Thanks to Joe.My.God for tipping us to this:

Gay Marriage Chart

Although the past year has been frustrating to liberals and libertarians on many levels, one exception is in the increasing willingness of governments around the world to recognize same-sex marriage, as Argentina determined to do yesterday. There are now about 250 million people worldwide living in jurisdictions which provide for marriage equity, as this colorful chart will help to demonstrate.

The big spike you see in 2008 is California recognizing gay marriage through the courts, and then un-recognizing it through the passage of Proposition 8. Right now, it’s possible to marry your same-sex partner in Buenos Aires, in Mexico City, in Ames, Iowa, and in Pretoria, South Africa, but not in San Francisco. With countries like Argentina and Portugal now recognizing same-sex marriages, however, the global trajectory has returned to its slow-but-steady upward pace.

Full Story from FiveThirtyEight

Click here for gay marriage resources.

To subscribe to this blog, use the rss feed on the right, or use the form at right to join our email list. You can also email us at info@purpleunions.com. Or find us on Facebook – just search for Gay Marriage Watch (you’ll see our b/w wedding pic overlooking the Ferry Building and Bay Bridge in SF). We’re also tweeting daily at http://www.twitter.com/gaymarriagewatc.

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